The Hagerty Market Score gauges the current state of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” driving momentum and underlying market strength. It is expressed as a closed number between 0-100 with a corresponding open index (similar to DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To understand more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Valuation, read here.
With a quarter-point drop this month, the Hagerty Market Score has dipped below 65 for the first time in three years. The current market valuation of 64.76 is the lowest since May 2021 and down 7 points from this time last year.
As market value continues to decrease, the Hagerty Market Index, an open-end stock market-style index of market value, saw its first rise in 18 months. Although this increase was only 0.1 point, it ended the longest losing streak in the Index’s history.
Optimism among our industry experts stayed at 50 again this month, reflecting the lack of unexpected changes they are seeing in the market. However, one trend persists: overall, real auction prices are falling.
The average auction sale price metric fell another 3 points this month to 32.97 – setting a new record for its lowest value in Market Estimate history. Down significantly from its high of $34,560 in late 2022, the current average auction price is now $28,875, the lowest since fall 2020. However, when accounting for inflation, the current value is the lowest ever. The metric of overall auction activity, which combines the average sales price and the number of cars sold, has plunged to a three-year low, driven solely by the underperformance of the average auction price.
Privately traded cars are performing slightly better. The average sales price increased slightly to $24,322 – a 28-month high. This helps account for inflation, but it’s also worth noting that May was the first month with effectively zero inflation since July 2022. And while the percentage of these cars selling for prices above their insured value fell for the 17th consecutive month, it still stands at 42.3 percent. This is higher than any point before 2022.
Despite what seems to be a softening market, Hagerty is receiving more and more calls from members to raise the insured values on their vehicles. The ratio of increase to decrease in insured value for vehicles valued under $250,000 has risen for 5 consecutive months to 8.5 to 1. This reverses a 14-month decline and might be a sign that owners believe the latest drop in values has hit its floor. Meanwhile, for high-end vehicles (over $250,000), the ratio has fallen for 19 of the past 20 months from 6.1-to-1 to 2.4-to-1.
Next month, we’ll examine how the softening market has impacted the values in the Hagerty Price Guide, as a new quarterly update hits the market in early July.
Visit the Hagerty Media Home Page so you don’t miss a single story, or better yet, bookmark it. To get our best stories delivered straight to your inbox, subscribe to our newsletters.